Jonathan Gruber, Professor of Economics MIT, posted the linked analysis demonstrating national and state specific estimates under the Better Care Better Jobs Act in growth of HCBS beneficiaries and new jobs: Impacts of Better Care Better Jobs Act on Home Care and Jobs | by Jonathan Gruber | Jul, 2021 | Medium
To summarize, the expanded eligibility for HCBS and availability of Personal Care Services can be expected to reduce unmet need among low-income households with no available family for care and support. It also can be expected to reduce the likelihood of nursing home entry for some of that group. The expansion of Personal Care Services can also be expected to expand employment among caregivers, improve the mental health and well-being of care givers and increase employment more broadly.
Using data from the American Community Survey and embedded metric assumptions, the analysis estimated creation of "more than 1.1 million new jobs by providing new opportunities to caregivers who faced reduced caregiving responsibilities" and "another 516,000 new jobs by creating opportunities to provide direct care".